Our Bad Guesses Lead to Your Good Deals

As we have grown substantially in the nearly 3 years I've owned Ump-Attire.com, we are seeing more opportunity to provide sales with some significant discounts. It's not my thing really. I don't want to be the guy that screams "We're Slashing Prices! Biggest Deals Ever! Hurry on Down Before It's Too Late!" I worry about that perception each time we announce a sale.

The growth thing comes into play because as you grow you have to plan ahead more for what you expect to sale way before each season begins (at least on most items). We don't get the luxury of seeing a few weeks into the season what's hot and what's not before deciding. If we wait at this level, attempting to buy more of our top selling basketball pant or umpire chest protector mid-season, there's a good chance we're not going to be able to get it.

And if we can't get it, we can't sell it. And if we can't sell it, then we've lost an opportunity to make money on it. And worse, you just may go elsewhere to get it.

But in planning ahead, it's impossible to guess right every time. When we miss under, we hope we'll figure that out ASAP and that more are available from suppliers. When we miss over, especially a lot over, we consider providing an incentive through a discounted price or coupon if you're a subscriber to our e-mail newsletter.

In looking at the latest End of Year Clearance, some items are closeouts with limited sizes (see Majestic referee shirts), some we got incredible buys on (see Spot-bilt patent basketball shoes), and many items are going to be changing a little so that we hope to start with as fresh a supply as possible before our next shipment arrives (see Smitty umpire pants and plate shoes).

But some items, we guessed badly for one reason or another. Ever hear in commercials for auto dealers, carpets and furniture, "Help! We bought too much! We need to clear inventory before next year's come in!"? What you can't help is but wonder if that's a true reason or just a gimmick. If it's a gimmick, I'm not sure if I'm advanced enough to pull that off. If it's true, then I'm starting to understand where they are coming from.

Three of these bad guessed items that stick out are:

• CCA Basketball Jackets
  Last year, college basketball officials were required to buy a new jacket style. They had '07 and '08 to start wearing this jacket. While our sales of it were solid last year, we took the route that demand would actually go up as a result of the impending deadline.
  
  Nope. College officials are not procrastinators and the overwhelming majority bought them last year. The only consolation prize to us is that I've heard several other retailers being in the same boat with us on this one. Your prize - if you need one or an extra one - is a price that honestly pains me to put in place.
  
  
• New Balance Field Shoes
  New Balance told us they were closing out of their popular field shoe (our most popular, too) in September of this year. And that there would be no more available until June '09. We were bummed, but managed to buy enough to last us through fall and what we have hoped to be at least half of spring '09. Well... New Balance changed their mind in October - as suppliers sometimes do - and we had maybe 150 or so more pairs than we needed.
  
  
• Richardson 485 Style Football Caps
  One of things we do in "guessing" demand for an item is looking at demand from the previous season - along with other things. On this item, we hadn't taken into consideration that another style was out of stock for much of 2007's peak football season, leading to inflated past sales of this one. We didn't take that into consideration and now we have maybe 100 or so too many and a humbling reminder that we are only human. C'est la vie.

Enjoy our bad guesses and your good deals.